Comments on CubaLibreBlog.com: U.S. - Cuba Trade by the Numbers

Walter,

I think that you're confusing two s...

2008-07-27T12:45:00.000-04:00

Walter,

I think that you're confusing two substantively different concepts: regime survival v. regime reform. The Castro brothers' regime has managed the former, but never the latter (see "The Myth of Raul's Ballyhoed Economic Reforms: A Blast from the Past?" posted Thursday, May 29, 2008).

I do not believe that they will ever reform the system in any substantive way, and even more importantly, they don't intend to do so -- and much less given the climate of resurgence of the latin america left in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua et al who all draw their perverse sense of inspiration from Cuba.

I support current U.S. policy on remittances (CANF does not), travel (CANF does not) and the embargo. Like Axel, I do not believe that there should be any change in these policies unilaterally. And since we well know that the Cuban regime as currently comprised does not intend to engage in meaningful reform, well you know the rest...

And before you cast the above in the wide net of "after all, this is a blog sponsored by the Cuban American National Foundation," you might want to consider this personal context -- I was born in Cuba and raised in a very small, poor rural town, my family and I experienced much economic (and didn't have access to any family members abroad who sent us remittances) and especially political hardship (my father was a political prisoner "plantado" the ones who wore nothing but their underwears for their sentence), all but my immediate family lives there now, and we have not been back since we left and at the risk of sounding romantic we will not be back until Cuba is one day a democratically elected government based on a free market economy that gives my Cuban brethen and their kin the opportunity to have the kind of life that you and I now enjoy here.

And so the next time that you find yourself in Cuba extolling the regime's virtues (and otherwise serving as an apologist) and of course enjoying all of the bounty that one does as a foreign tourist who supports the regime, I respectfully suggest that you giver real consideration to the fact that my Cuban brethren can't.

About the deepening of the social divide, this has always existed and has been exacerbated under the Castro regime - the haves being those in the Castro government and its apparatus (including entertainers, athletes, etc.) and the have nots being just about everybody else (including Afro-Cubans but I suppose you've visited Havana's "Regla" neighorhood.)

Hi Walter,

I do not believe the current sys...

2008-07-27T08:25:00.000-04:00

Hi Walter,

I do not believe the current system can reform itself to the extent needed to help the Cuban people, so given your two choices, I would choose implosion.

As for reimmitances and travel, I'm not against these policies in the abstract, but I am against the US changing policy unilaterally.

For example, I have no problem abolishing all limits on travel if Cuba did the same - i.e., let Cuban citizens travel freely abroad. Why should the world accept Cuba pointing a crooked finger at the US with one hand, while simultaenously limiting its own people?

Remittances? Sure, if Cuba allows newstands to sell foreign newspapers in Cuba so Cubans can use some of those remittances to inform themselves.

This is not about imposing policy from a abroad. This is about calling for basic freedoms that the majority of the world enjoys. It is Cuba's choice, not ours.

You keep harping on the failure of the embargo. Quick question, which part of the 1990s narrative I shared to do you disagree with?

Axel: I agree with you! We ARE looking for differe...

2008-07-25T16:10:00.000-04:00

Axel: I agree with you! We ARE looking for different things. But this IS, after all, a blog sponsored by the Cuban American National Foundation, so it's not surprising that we are seeking different things.

I'm hoping that the system can reform itself and make itself function better. You're hoping that it will fail and collapse.

Time will tell who was right, but the blockade has failed to bring about the overthrow of the Cuban system.

Obama, seems to think that by opening up travel and remittances it will deepen the social divides within Cuban society. And his observation isn't mistaken. As someone who spends time in Cuba, I can see these things in the works.

So, are you for opening up travel and remittances, or not?

Hi Walter,

Disagree with this part of your ...

2008-07-25T12:34:00.000-04:00

Hi Walter,

Disagree with this part of your statement:

"Many thought the Cuban system would collapse when the Soviet Union collapsed, but the Cuban leadership reconfigured their system and it's still working, fifteen years later."

The system almost did collapse, with Fidel expounding on the virtues of a more basic lifefstyle...riding bikes, etc. Ironically, it was during their darkest hour that they turned to capitalism and allowed more dissent. As you know, this is when they allowed a degree of entreprenuership and when the current dissident movement first took hold.

When these initiatives started to improve the economy, they started to clamp down again, slowly wiping out both economic and political progress. The final nail on the coffin was the emergence of Chavez and his huge oil subsidies.

So I think you and I are hoping for different things from the next President.

Both Axel and Lincoln Manuel make good points
<...

2008-07-25T09:45:00.000-04:00

Both Axel and Lincoln Manuel make good points

As both know, the Cuban government has begun the process of opening up much more private usage (not ownership, but usage of the land under "usufruct") with the goal of producing more food domestically.

No one can predict with certainty that they will succeed. My crystal ball isn't as clear as it was when I was twenty, but success can't be excluded in advance, can it?

Many thought the Cuban system would collapse when the Soviet Union collapsed, but the Cuban leadership reconfigured their system and it's still working, fifteen years later.

Remittances, limited though they are, provide some income to the Cuban state, but nickel production and biotech sales (medicines) are now the main producers of hard currency through Cuba's business transactions in the world market.

Lincoln Manuel is correct when writing this:

"by some recent estimates as much as US$1 billion in remittances are sent annually to Cubans on the island, one could easily argue that there's plenty more from where that came from."

That's why Washington cut the amount which Cubans can send to their families so radically back in 2004.

Obama says he'll lift the limits on remittances and on Cuban-American visitation to the island.

And he made that statement when he spoke at the CANF in Miami in May.

What do axel, lincoln manuel and others reading this post think?

Personally, I hope he does that if he's elected. Politicians in this country don't always keep their promises, and Obama is a politician as others are. He's moved more to the center during this campaign, but on Cuba policy, he's maintained his position of:

Ending limits on family visits and
ending limits on remittances.

Time will tell what happens with this.

Nice discussion, folks!

.

Thanks for your post, Walter. This discussion is ...

2008-07-24T14:33:00.000-04:00

Thanks for your post, Walter. This discussion is an interesting one.

About your contention that this upward trend in U.S. trade to Cuba necessarily means that the latter's credit position is "fairly decent," I would echo Axel who is spot in suggesting that this can easily be paid for through remittanes from relatives in the U.S. In fact, when one considers that by some recent estimates as much as US$1 billion in remittances are sent annually to Cubans on the island, one could easily argue that there's plenty more from where that came from.

What's more, the chilling truth is is that according to at least some Cuban economy experts the island nation is in fact the most indebeted country in the "world", even behind countries like Haiti, Bolivia et al.

And let's not get started on reports that indicate that in addition to Cuba's export of human capital to Venezuela in exchange for petroleum, it has effectively conveyed in fee simple large chunks of prime real estate to Chavez and his clan...

Walter,

Good to see your post. One thought...

2008-07-24T12:23:00.000-04:00

Walter,

Good to see your post. One thought on your comment...Cuba may have built a good credit rating, but this data doesn't show that.

The US imports can easily be paid via hard dollars recieved through remittances.

The imports from venezeuala are largely paid for through the barter of Cuban doctors.

It is interesting that they import so much food given so much vacant land/available labor in Cuba.

Also, the Cuban people must be suffering on the healthcare front. They've always suffered materially (medicines, supplies, etc.) but have benefited from doctors. Now, most of the doctors are gone.

Thanks for posting this remarkable information. No...

2008-07-23T18:18:00.000-04:00

Thanks for posting this remarkable information. Notice that it's almost all a one-way proposition since Cuba can't sell their products to the United States.

Cuba must have built up a fairly decent credit rating by now, with U.S. agribusiness since it's required by US law to pay cash in advance of delivery for the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of agricultural commodities it's purchased from the United States.

Clearly there's a lot more money which could be made in the United States if we were also able to purchase and sell Cuban commodities IN the United States.

Though I don't smoke (any longer) and don't drink much, there's clearly a market for Cuban tobacco and alcoholic beverages in the United States.

But even more so, Cuba's second largest foreign export sales product these days is medicine.

There's clearly something which should be explored more, but ultimately normalization of relations will have to come.

Thanks for having this discussion.

Comments on CubaLibreBlog.com: U.S. - Cuba Trade by the Numbers

Walter,I think that you're confusing two s...

Hi Walter,I do not believe the current sys...