Comments on CubaLibreBlog.com: Obama’s Cuba policy – more information needed.

That's very generous of you, but I prefer puré de ...

2008-05-29T17:16:00.000-04:00

That's very generous of you, but I prefer puré de malanga. Hope the Gerber didn't make you forget what a good Cuban puré de malanga tastes like.

I think on this point we have mixed agreement: I d...

2008-05-29T14:54:00.000-04:00

I think on this point we have mixed agreement: I did not like the compota in Cuba if it was in fact that, but did enjoy the Gerber brand better than I liked the yellow government cheese and canned spam but I digress. In any event, I'll put some "compota" in a trust account for your future consumption.

Never liked compota, nor the Russian ones got in ...

2008-05-29T14:14:00.000-04:00

Never liked compota, nor the Russian ones got in Cuba or the Gerber variety.

Alex,

Thanks for the clarification on your...

2008-05-29T03:13:00.000-04:00

Alex,

Thanks for the clarification on your liberal use of "I think..." I refer you to the "compota" that I'm offering on the mainboard.

2008-05-28T15:46:00.000-04:00

This comment has been removed by the author.

Hi Alex,

First, sorry for the delayed respo...

2008-05-28T15:45:00.000-04:00

Hi Alex,

First, sorry for the delayed response – had some work to do. :-)

I think the source of our disagreement on remittances is the "intent" you allude to.

I certainly would like to see the Cuban people better off today...but not at the expense of freedom and prosperity tomorrow.

I agree that most of the world knows, in its heart, that Cuba is a repressive, totalitarian state. The problem is that they file this information away deep in the mind, never to be used again. It is "easy" to forget the crimes of the regime and carry forward. The “Cuba issue” is also muddied in people’s mind from the continuous rabble from Chavez, and Cuba’s cronies in Africa/Middle East.

Also, I am not championing a policy of confrontation, though I can see how some could call it that. Essentially, I propose that we should take the offensive with unassailable proposals: will do x, if you do y. This is not confrontation, simply a proposal.

There are ways of framing/structuring the remittance issue to minimize the standard rebuke you highlight. For example, what if the US bought Pesos in the open market and then exchanged them for Cuban-American Dollars before sending to
Cuba? i.e., expanded remittances, but in Cuban Pesos. Sure, these are useless, but it would be pretty clear who’s responsible. Why can’t you buy milk with Cuban Pesos in Cuba? Would love to see the government answer these types of questions.

This is not necessarily the right answer – but its in the spirit of what I’m saying.

Kimbo: what tangible evidence? I believe I said "I...

2008-05-28T14:14:00.000-04:00

Kimbo: what tangible evidence? I believe I said "I think" a dozen times in this thread. It is just my opinion.

Obviously Raul has not said it explicitly. But political analysis doesn't depend only on hard evidence. If you wait for evidence, you are behind the curve.

To me, the tentative signs are everywhere and have been for a while. They go from the retired Army officers in charge of much of the infrastructure and tourism to the quiet agricultural reforms (allowing farmers to buy tools and use vacant land), to the more ballyhooed recent market driven measures.

I'm the first one to say the latter are not meaningful. But they have to be seen as harbinger of things to come (eliminating dual currency, allowing more private and foreign investment) because they don't make sense otherwise and if there's one thing we should have learned is to not underestimate the enemy. Raul is many things, but he's not dumb.

Alex, I respectfully couldn't disagree more with y...

2008-05-28T11:13:00.000-04:00

Alex, I respectfully couldn't disagree more with your "nothing" comment. What tangible and "meaningful" empirical evidence do you have that suggests that?

Don't stop there, explain why not.

I'll tel...

2008-05-28T00:03:00.000-04:00

Don't stop there, explain why not.

I'll tell you what's stopping him: nothing. He's well on his way. But American trade is the icing on the cake (as it was for China). If that means he has to free political prisoners which will either leave the country or he can always jail again later, he'll do it.

The trick is taking advantage of this desire. Small steps are better than inmobility. Besides, the conversation is not really with Raul, is (as it has always been) with the technocrats that support Raul. Even if that conversation is by proxy. There's always an Egon Krenz or Gustav Husak looking ten years ahead.

You don't think Raul would jump at the opportu...

2008-05-27T21:24:00.000-04:00
You don't think Raul would jump at the opportunity to become a China or VietNam?

What's stopping him? The onus is on him to liberalize the economy if he truly wants a Chinese model. I'll answer the question. What's stopping him is the fact that the regime would not last a year under a true Chinese model because Cuba is not China.

But doesn't "now explain why you want to let your ...

2008-05-27T18:24:00.000-04:00
But doesn't "now explain why you want to let your people suffer" precisely concerns the reaction of the regime? mean, you'll do something knowing they'll react negatively -and thus be exposed to the world.

I find fault with that course of action for two things: first because there isn't a great need to show Cuba is a totalitarian society that denies its citizens "norms adopted by the vast majority of the world's population" (you may disagree with me on this). I think the problem isn't that the rest of the world ignores this, the problem is that they either don't care or explain it away using the regime's usual rethoric.

In other words, Raul will just say "we don't take away the tax because we are a poor country in war with the largest imperial power in the world which thinks it can even tell us what taxes to implement" and guess what, so far history shows it's a convincing argument -not correct and not convincing to you and me- but to many other countries and people.

The second reason is that if the intent is to have more help reach everyday Cubans instead of showing the hypocrisy of the regime, confrontation can only backfire.

I'm more pragmatic than that. I think the carrot you show Raul has to be under the table, otherwise he can't take it. Despite all of Havana's protestations, Obama just showed Raul a big carrot. Now he has to is follow through and really press him, not convince him, but make clear he only gets the carrot in exchange for real changes. You don't think Raul would jump at the opportunity to become a China or VietNam? Don't think of it as rewarding a tyrant, think of it as benefiting a country.

(No, I didn't think you were mocking Obama. I meant the political context in which the speech was received among the traditinal CA community was dubious. They don't give Obama the benefit of the doubt)

Hi Alex,

There is certainly a "feeling"...b...

2008-05-27T15:59:00.000-04:00
Hi Alex,

There is certainly a "feeling"...but also, I just don't read his comments as unambiguous as you do.

I also hope my comments are not interpreted as "mocking" Obama, I meant nothing of the sort. I also did not mean to imply that he will be the next President - that was a hypothetical.

I also (a third also) do not wish to engage in a domestic US policy discussion, but as you can imagine, I'd love to hear McCain say he was going to take an aggressive "negotiation" posture with Cuba. I would not like Obama to meet with Raul.

On the remittances, not too concerned with how the regime will react. The whole point is to publicly attack their incredulous positions and put the burden of explanation on them.

Basically, here's the carrot...now explain why you want to let your people suffer by rejecting norms adopted by the vast majority of the world's population?

Oh, sorry, here's the link to the speech.

Axel: if it's a "feeling" then it must have been s...

2008-05-27T15:42:00.000-04:00
Axel: if it's a "feeling" then it must have been something in the delivery. On paper all three statements look clear and unambiguous as a speech goes. You say yourself it would have been unreasonable to expect a detailed plan from Obama.

Yes, those are standard starting points for every president since Kennedy -so why ask Obama what has not been asked and delivered by his predecessors? Then we ask for innovative positions, only to mock and doubt that innovation.

Let's not fool ourselves. 99% of the criticism of Obama's Cuba speech is US party politics. It's been said a million times that he will sit with Raul (he doesn't say that) or that he's somehow naive or believe he'll change Raul's ways (he doesn't say that either). Those two arguments are classic strawmen. I'm not saying your post in particular was one of those, but it comes in that context.

In short, give the guy a chance. He has to be elected before formulating policy. Many exiles expecting a miracle from him have been happy with just a pep talk from Bush every May 20th, so what's the rush?

Lastly, the remittances. If the president asks publicly (and I see you already elected Obama) for eliminating the 10% fee and the 8% exchange rate, the most probable reaction from Cuba will be an outcry of interference in domestic affairs. It may be BS, but the net result is no change. Direct aid to the people, bypassing the system? I'm not sure what that means. I send the money to my family directly. The system takes his cut when they spend the money.

Hi Alex,

Thanks for the post...and for the ...

2008-05-27T14:24:00.000-04:00
Hi Alex,

Thanks for the post...and for the speech details! Your comments are certainly welcome and want to provide some additional thoughts.
As your pasted-in excerpts indicate, he certainly said some good things. However, I would have appreciated a clear, holistic approach towards Cuba, especially on his key point of departure with past policy, rather than general statements which weren’t as closely linked in the speech (happy to read the full transcript if you post it!).
The objectives highlighted in the first excerpt are not new – these could have been inserted into any President’s speech since Kennedy. His position on the embargo, (third excerpt), is also not new – the embargo would have been adjusted long ago if Cuba had taken “significant steps toward democracy”. This could have made many speeches as well.
The main source of innovation here is to actively use the embargo to encourage change in Cuba, as opposed to waiting for things to happen (second excerpt). Go on the offensive. Put Cuba on the defensive. Let them continuously have to explain why a free press (for example) is not worth explicit benefits for Cubans, such as medicines to help Cuba’s poor.
This is the missing link that I didn’t fully get from the speech. It was a start, but there was no force in his statements…which prompted my desire for three simple, direct, and unambiguous statements.
His description of potential engagement with Raul did not accomplish this. Taken as a whole, the engagement part of the speech did not come across as a stern, yet newly flexible approach towards policy. It was more of a “I’m new to the Office, things have been difficult in the past, lets have a fresh start”. This is a characterization I know, but it’s the “feeling” I got after the speech.
The speech also raised some concern, specially the part of him leading the diplomacy. The US has everything to lose, and Raul everything to gain, from a direct meeting between the two. Not to mention, the President of the US would be meeting with a murderer.
On the remittances point, no major disagreement, though we can debate the point on subsistence without the remittance. Nevertheless, my point is that the remittances are just as important to the regime (at the macro level) as it is to individuals – the regime is never more worried then when people are reach that breaking point. This is important to realize. Why couldn’t the US President publicly ask that the tax be reduced or eliminated in return for allowing remittances? Alternatively, the US could negotiate direct aid to the people and bypass the whole freaking system. Admittedly, this would be harder to do.

If Sen. Obama thinks he's going to single-handedly...

2008-05-27T13:28:00.000-04:00
If Sen. Obama thinks he's going to single-handedly change a dictator or other "problem country"'s course by rolling his sleeves and engaging in some direct diplomacy, then he is completely delusional. I think he has bought into all of the messiah hype that is surrounding his campaign.

After 8 years of Bush and his misadventures, what we need is a foreign policy REALIST, and not another deluded foreign policy idealist, who just waves a different ideological flag.

I believe it is a positive step that Senator Obama...

2008-05-27T12:43:00.000-04:00
I believe it is a positive step that Senator Obama is willing to meet with Raul Castro. We have already seen that "ignoring" or not trying to normalize talks with Cuba has been an ineffective policy. The US has been requiring preconditions for decades and there have been little noticeable changes. I believe Senator Obama will bring a new wave of methods in dealing with "enemy" countries.

Couple things about your three wishes: granted, I'...

2008-05-27T08:04:00.000-04:00
Couple things about your three wishes: granted, I'm going by the "as prepared" speech. Maybe he changed something while delivering. Maybe he improvised. But to me:

"My policy toward Cuba will be guided by one word: Libertad. And the road to freedom for all Cubans must begin with justice for Cuba’s political prisoners, the rights of free speech, a free press and freedom of assembly; and it must lead to elections that are free and fair."

sounds pretty objective-based, unless you were expecting a detailed plan, with a timeline perhaps (which you say it's unreasonable). What can't be said is that he is aiming just for the "relationship".

He doesn't say anywhere he'll meet personally with Raul Castro right off the bat (or that he wants to have tea). Again, from the speech:

"Now let me be clear. John McCain’s been going around the country talking about how much I want to meet with Raul Castro, as if I’m looking for a social gathering. That’s never what I’ve said, and John McCain knows it. After eight years of the disastrous policies of George Bush, it is time to pursue direct diplomacy, with friend and foe alike, without preconditions. There will be careful preparation. We will set a clear agenda. And as President, I would be willing to lead that diplomacy at a time and place of my choosing, but only when we have an opportunity to advance the interests of the United States, and to advance the cause of freedom for the Cuban people."

There you go. No social gathering. Careful preparation. A clear agenda -which I'm willing to bet it'd be very close to the one you outlined.

Embargo as a tool: This one has me puzzled, because I read he said:

"I will maintain the embargo. It provides us with the leverage to present the regime with a clear choice: if you take significant steps toward democracy, beginning with the freeing of all political prisoners, we will take steps to begin normalizing relations. That’s the way to bring about real change in Cuba – through strong, smart and principled diplomacy."

which is exactly what you wish he had said!

So I can only conclude the speech was completely different than the publishes "as prepared" speech. I wasn't there, after all. Or that you weren't paying much attention to the details.

(BTW, that ubertaxed 80 cents is more than "a little help". More like the only meaningful means of susbsistence. As bad as the combination of arbitrary high taxes and high prices at the CUC stores are, living on a Cuban-peso salary is impossible. The remittances are not help, they are a lifeline. That's why the "new guard" is so passionate about them.

Comments on CubaLibreBlog.com: Obama’s Cuba policy – more information needed.

That's very generous of you, but I prefer puré de ...

I think on this point we have mixed agreement: I d...

Never liked compota, nor the Russian ones got in ...

Alex,Thanks for the clarification on your...

Hi Alex,First, sorry for the delayed respo...

Kimbo: what tangible evidence? I believe I said "I...

Alex, I respectfully couldn't disagree more with y...

Don't stop there, explain why not.I'll tel...

You don't think Raul would jump at the opportu...

But doesn't "now explain why you want to let your ...

Hi Alex,There is certainly a "feeling"...b...

Oh, sorry, here's the link to the speech.

Axel: if it's a "feeling" then it must have been s...

Hi Alex,Thanks for the post...and for the ...

If Sen. Obama thinks he's going to single-handedly...

I believe it is a positive step that Senator Obama...

Couple things about your three wishes: granted, I'...

Alex,

Thanks for the clarification on your...

Hi Alex,

First, sorry for the delayed respo...

Don't stop there, explain why not.

I'll tel...

Hi Alex,

There is certainly a "feeling"...b...

Hi Alex,

Thanks for the post...and for the ...