tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3503239653195967295.post3641941817792715745..comments2008-10-20T22:30:32.298-04:00Tonyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17285764199578112393noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3503239653195967295.post-10248851577094333542008-10-20T22:30:00.001-04:002008-10-20T22:30:00.001-04:00Hi A,<BR/><BR/>Great points. Agree that the Cuba relationship is more "special" and Chavez will cut only relunctantly.<BR/><BR/>That said, the lower opportunity cost to venezuela implies a lower value for Cuba. This is not important in itself, but coupled with higher pressures at home for Chavez - if budget pressures do emerge - could set the stage for a thawing of the relationship.<BR/><BR/>So sorry to hear about the decay in Venezuela...truly a shame.Axelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16612618000146200728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3503239653195967295.post-69826807357000117682008-10-20T22:30:00.000-04:002008-10-20T22:30:00.000-04:00Hi A,<BR/><BR/>Great points. Agree that the Cuba relationship is more "special" and Chavez will cut only relunctantly.<BR/><BR/>That said, the lower opportunity cost to venezuela implies a lower value for Cuba. This is not important in itself, but coupled with higher pressures at home for Chavez - if budget pressures do emerge - could set the stage for a thawing of the relationship.<BR/><BR/>So sorry to hear about the decay in Venezuela...truly a shame.Axelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16612618000146200728noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3503239653195967295.post-72787066730094937712008-10-20T12:30:00.000-04:002008-10-20T12:30:00.000-04:00If Chavez is looking to trim his petrodollar diplomacy, I personally think Cuba would be one of the last places he would look to cut back on. Beyond the doctors in the hills, Chavez is getting security &amp; intelligence specialists, and other in kind resources from Cuba, to help strengthen his grip and give him leftist legitimacy.<BR/><BR/>Also, if Chavez is bouyed by his foreign reserves and does not face huge budget shortfalls (as opposed to restraints on &quot;diplomatic spending&quot;), the drop in oil prices might be viewed as a drop in the opportunity costs of the current Cuban oil subsidy. That logic has some holes, but then again Chavez isn&#39;t very rational.<BR/><BR/>As someone who&#39;s traveled to Venezuela recently for work reasons, I have to say that the level of urban decay and crime/fear was astonishing. Changing the dial on the radio only to hear Chavez&#39;s talk on each station (except one, which no doubt will be closed down soon), made us feel like we were in Orwell&#39;s 1984.<BR/><BR/>Oh and this quote really stood out:<BR/>&quot;Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez said this month that cost-cutting will be unavoidable — but the only cuts he initially mentioned involved taking government SUVs off the road, slicing cell phone bills and holding less-extravagant parties.&quot;<BR/><BR/>Talk about bringing a knife to a gunfight!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com