Looking forward – dealing with Castro # 2

When I heard that Cuba had “elected” Raul as Cuba’s second President in 49 years, I had a similar reaction to that of thousands of Cuban-Americans – a golden opportunity for progress was not only missed, but deliberately crushed. Rather than signaling to the world that Cuba was ready for change, even if slow change, Cuba’s leaders continued to communicate a message of defiance and stubbornness rooted in ego and fear. Basically, we will not change, we will not consider the plight of our citizenry, and we will not give up power.

However, I believe there is a glimmer of hope in this dark cloud. There is an opportunity for the world at large, but particularly the US, to leverage Cuba’s immediate economic need to fast-forward Cuba’s transition to democracy.

As has been written about extensively, Cuba’s economy is in a desperate situation, maintained just above the implosion point by heavy subsidies from Venezuela (the new Soviet Union). Even Raul has recognized Cuba’s dire straights and has encouraged dialogue on how to improve productivity in Cuba, in the hopes of raising economic performance. As with all dictators, more concerned with maintaining power than with any ideology, it is almost certain that Raul will once again experiment with local and small-scale entrepreneurship and capitalism to try and revive the economy (as was done in the 90’s). In his need to revive the Cuban economy lays the opportunity.

The US should be willing to provide targeted and well controlled economic incentives IN EXCHANGE FOR specific and difficult to reverse political/humanitarian commitments by Cuba’s elite. For example, the US may allow agricultural products to be sold on credit to the regime (helping to feed a hungry populace) if the government allows Cuban farmers to control pricing and production of their products. Provide computer programming classes to university students (helping to educate the population in non-political areas) if the government allows unfettered access to the internet. Allow increased visitation by Cuban-Americans (providing hard currency) if Cubans are allowed to buy the staples of daily life with the Cuban Peso rather than a foreign currency. Revise portions of the embargo facilitating investment in Cuba (improving the economy), if Cubans are allowed to visit the same ritzy resorts as foreign tourists. These small changes would not topple the regime overnight, but they will increase the pace of change, increase the confidence of those Cuban leaders secretly hoping for change, and provide the Cuban people with a reminder of what they lost in 1959. Should the reforms stop or be reversed, all assistance should also immediately be stopped and reversed.

This is not a proscriptive list, just an example of what is possible. This is an opportune time to provide assistance to the Cuban people while simultaneously extracting a price from the Cuban government. Raul Castro should continuously be put on the defensive: why does he reject assistance that would immediately and directly benefit his citizens? Why does he oppose changes that are opposed by all but the most isolated regimes?

In essence, he should be enticed to make changes that steadily increase the power of the populace vis-à-vis the government or he should continuously and remorselessly be made to answer why.

More of the Same Institutionalizes Communism in Cuba

Today’s news from Havana about the selection of Cuba’s official “new” leadership corroborate that, as the title of my last post indicates, action is required for the people of Cuba to be able to exercise their rights to routinely determine their own future. Despite of hopes for a better outcome, Cuba’s “new” leadership is unfortunately just more of the same. The people of Cuba remain without the ability to determine their own political future through routine, free and fair, multiparty elections and a dynastical succession continues to be imposed on the island.

As new President, Raul Castro will likely work with his allies towards making the economic reforms necessary to provide him with the political breathing room that he needs to successfully institutionalize communism and maintain a repressive one-party rule in Cuba. If he is successful in doing this, Cuba could be submitted to additional decades of an institutional communist dictatorship akin to that suffered by the Soviet Union. Such a regime would not require a grand persona such as Fidel Castro to hold it together and could rule solely based on broader institutional mechanisms of repressive governance. This is not what the people of Cuba want and it should not be something that the international community accepts as a just outcome for Cuba. People in Cuba have the right to routinely choose their leaders in free and fair multiparty elections. Anything short of that should not be accepted as a moral outcome for Cuba, regardless of the name of the country’s President.

The Cuban government today confirmed that they will not, on their own, move towards real changes on the island. Cubans and all who love freedom throughout the world must make this change happen. Despite of the monumental difficulties of organizing in a police state such as Cuba, Cubans on the island must continue to increase their organized efforts seeking real changes towards a democracy that allows for the self-determination they deserve. We Cubans in exile must increase our efforts and unified support of initiatives seeking real change on the island. And, those in the international community that love freedom and are interested in the wellbeing of the people of Cuba must wholly reject this succession and must increase the pressure on Cuba’s government to stop nowhere short of holding free and fair, multiparty elections.

Time is currently the enemy of democracy in Cuba. If Raul Castro is allowed the time and the room to institutionalize communism, additional decades can pass before Cuba can become a member of the free world. Such an outcome would be another tragedy for a country that has already suffered too much for too long.

“FIVE DAYS THAT CAN CHANGE CUBA’S FUTURE”

Given the resignation of Fidel Castro today, the Cuban American National Foundation now calls upon Cuba’s one-party Popular Assembly to help put an end to the Castro brothers’ dynasty this Sunday, February 24.

“There presently exists a 5 day window of opportunity for those in the current regime to truly begin to contribute to putting an end to the Castro dynasty,” stated Jorge Mas Santos, CANF Chairman. “A vote in the Popular Assembly of Cuba for someone other than Raul Castro this Sunday could initiate a process that would culminate in the elimination, once and for all, of the totalitarian control that the Castro brothers have exercised over the Cuban people for nearly half a century. Although the struggle for freedom will continue regardless of how the Assembly votes, such an unendorsed move would send a very clear signal to the international community that there is impetus inside the Cuban government for real change.”

“The Cuban American National Foundation calls upon the individual members of the Popular Assembly to act decisively and responsibly, to seize this historic opportunity and make an initial gesture of their genuine desire to promote the best interests of the Cuban people.”

“This potential opening can also act as a tremendous catalyst for change. By joining in backing this initiative, the people of Cuba, the opposition movement, dissidents, and all of those who yearn for a future of freedom and democracy in Cuba can help determine their own destiny.”

One-party elections, where no opposition was permitted, were held in Cuba on January 20 to select members to this Sunday’s assembly, in a carefully orchestrated attempt by the regime to assure a smooth transition from Fidel to Raul Castro.

“This is a one-time opportunity for the Popular Assembly to act as more than a rubber-stamp mechanism for the unilateral will of a Communist dictator,” stated Francisco ‘Pepe’ Hernández, CANF President.

Added Mas Santos: “We call upon the people and governments of the free world, the people of Cuba, and Cubans in exile to support this initiative, make their desires known publicly, and create a united front that will lead to a favorable outcome for the Cuban nation.”

Action Required

As February 19, 2008 comes to a close, one conclusion is clear: action is required.

Fidel Castro’s official relinquishment of power today marks a historic moment for Cuba. After nearly fifty years of absolute power, the world’s longest lasting dictator has officially stepped down. Those who love freedom throughout the world should find joy in Cuba being one step closer to being free.

However, a new chapter in Cuba’s history can not begin to be written just yet. The fact is that, despite of Fidel Castro’s official resignation, in this very moment Cuba still has political prisoners, there is still no free press, human rights abuses continue, there are no new political parties, the economy remains broken and backward, the educational system remains limited to the content that the communist party approves, quality health care remains only available to those who can pay in dollars, Cuban’s are still not allowed to travel freely out of the county and they continue to live in a humiliating apartheid system that limits their access to hotels and restaurants and does not allow them to pay for all of the country’s goods and services with the same currency that the sole employer on the island (the Cuban government) pays them. The fact is that the height of historical significance to which today’s events will rise will be determined by the actions that are taken over the coming months.

Fidel Castro’s relinquishment of power is an additional and necessary step towards Cuba finally being a free and democratic nation that allows for the political, social and economic self-determination of its citizens. Today’s events provide an additional catalyst for change; however, assertive action is required in the months to come if Cuba is to reach days of democracy anytime soon. This opportunity must not be wasted. Cuba’s civil society must continue to increase its organized and visible calls for change, brave and responsible change agents within the current government structure must step forward, the international community must not accept business as usual in Cuba and the Cuban exile community must act in unison, with the voice it has in the free world and with its economic resources, to support efforts to finally bring about the democratic Cuba that Cubans deserve. The relative level of success that can be achieved along these four points will determine the speed with which change ultimately comes to Cuba and therefore the ultimate significance of today’s events. Perfect execution on all points is not necessary and mistakes will inevitably be made, but without question further action is required.

We would love to your thoughts on what Fidel Castro’s resignation represents for you and how you plan to add your grain of sand in support of a free and democratic Cuba.

Fidel goes out with a whimper

This morning the world woke to fascinating news. After nearly 50 years in power, Fidel Castro officially relinquished control over Cuba. Fidel’s long road to the end has been slow, but eagerly anticipated and mused over by the world community since he underwent surgery in 2006 – when exactly, would he die or surrender control? In the event, it was underwhelming…a simple letter from a diminished man, who long-ago willingly traded his guerilla fatigues for a Adidas track-suit.

The general US response has been as expected: calls for democracy from Bush and the presidential candidates, calls for ending the embargo from those seeking to “spread the democratic word” and bring home a few cigars from their trip, and a mixed reaction from the Cuban-American community.

For Cuban-Americans, today was a day of immense happiness coupled with disappointment. Cuban-Americans experienced great happiness at seeing Fidel succumb to his illness and old-age, finally removing his oppressive grip from Cuba’s throat. He can no longer abuse the country or its people. He can no longer cause so much pain. Best of all, changes in the world, together with changes on the island, mean that no one will be able to hold the same grip again. Certainly a time for joy.

However, the day also brought disappointment. For most of the last 50 years, the Cuban-American community fervently believed (and as of recently, probably only hoped) that Fidel’s demise would bring a near-immediate end to communism and dictatorship in Cuba. Alas, this is not to be. Whether it is Raul, or hopefully someone else (see CANF’s appeal for an election of a non-Castro at http://www.canf.org/), it is clear that Cuba is not free yet. Cuba is in for a period of transition, potentially slow (like China’s crawl), but hopefully fast!

I believe it can be fast. Cuba is a small country, with a small population, and one decision away from immense prosperity. No one, including its leaders, can deny the deteriorated conditions of all aspects of Cuban society today. What is needed is that the next generation of Cuban leaders show a little humility and caring for their fellow countrymen…that the US explicitly promotes and encourages peaceful, incremental change…and that the expatriate community continues to believe, hope, and push for a free Cuba.

Que viva Cuba libre!!

CANF STATEMENT ON FIDEL CASTRO RESIGNATION

“Today’s announcement of the resignation of Fidel Castro closes a dark chapter in Cuban history. His half-a-century-old reign of terror has come to an end, yet the system he created all those years ago to maintain total control over the population, remains. This brings about a historic opportunity for those within the upper echelons of the Cuban government, including apparent successor Raul Castro, to take significant steps toward democratic change, restoring to the Cuban people their inalienable right to self-determination. If the current regime opts to continue on the same path the Cuban people will force the change—they will no longer be denied. Every day more brave men and women add their voices to the call for democratic change. They take to the streets demanding the release of political prisoners; they go door to door collecting signatures petitioning for significant reforms; they write and speak out about the regime’s abuses and of a desire to live in freedom. In the coming months, Cuba’s dissidents will have a unique opportunity to press for peaceful democratic change, raising their voices and inevitably drowning out those who have preached rhetoric and imposed repression for almost 50 years.”

US Cuba policy - whats needed

As a Cuban-American, I read the Cuba position statements submitted by the Presidential candidates to CANF with great interest, seeking to gain a better understanding of how “America” currently views Cuba – as a synthesis of what America thinks, there’s no better source than the views expressed by Presidential candidates during an election year. So what do their responses tell us? In short, some things have changed, some have not.

What has changed? Mostly, the candidates are talking about Cuba in the minutia…wet-foot/dry-foot, family travel and/or tourist travel, allow/disallow remittances, etc.. While these issues are all of paramount importance to individual Cuban families struggling to reunite, or support, family members “left behind” in Cuba, they do relatively little to advance the overall goal of every Cuban in the US: a democratic and capitalist Cuba. By no means am I suggesting these are unimportant; what I am saying is that their discussion should not take energy and thought away from the broader goal. To use a twist on a popular analogy, do not forget how to get out of the forest because you are too focused on individual trees.

One thing has changed that brings us a step closer to the overall goal. Basically, the question of whether “we should negotiate with Cuba?”, or the stronger version “should we have open discussions with Cuba?” It is an interesting question (discussed most by Obama and Clinton), but one that cannot be answered without addressing a more immediate question: negotiate what? discuss what? Not sure how you enter a negotiation without knowing what you’re going to negotiate!!

This points us to what has not changed, mainly, the US strategy towards Cuba, and frankly, that of the Cuban-American community. As ever, the question revolves around whether the embargo has been “effective”, or not, and whether it should be repealed or changed. While the merits of the embargo itself can be debated (this debate is beyond the scope of this post), its central role in Cuba-policy discussions today is grossly misplaced. The embargo is by no means the only “leverage” point the US has over Cuba. Like any nation, Cuba strives for international recognition and respect; like many poor nations, Cuba yearns for financial and technical support. Only the US can truly provide these.

We need a strategy, not just a mission statement. A strategy that takes account of the present. A present that understands that Communist ideology is dead, Cuba is a failed experiment, the Cuban people (on the island) are finally beginning to demand something different, and that the Cuban regime is poised for change. Only Gulianni hints in this direction. But we need more, much more.

For too long, the US has allowed Castro’s regime to not only score continuous political points, but also allowed him to blame the US for all of its problems, as ludicrous, inhumane, and self-serving as that is.

We need to hold firm to our ideals and principles, and communicate them strongly. But we also need to show the “path forward”, in clear, small, indisputable steps. We need to provide a benefit (or reward, to use a different term) to those on the island who wish for something different, and are willing to sacrifice for change. We need to start small, but be aggressive. Push hard, then push harder. Always in a principled way, with the explicit aim of helping the Cuban people. For example, the US could agree to supply much needed medical aid to Cuba (non-withstanding Michael Moore’s absurd movie), if the government allows its citizens to enjoy tourist areas and pay with the Cuban Peso (see “Con la misma moneda”, a campaign supported by CANF). Alternatively, the US could also agree to supply Cuba with agricultural support (sorely needed, according to the Miami Herald) if the regime allows farmers to own the land on which they toil.

In short, the US should make it clear that it is willing to support and help the Island, in small ways if necessary, if the regime chooses to adopt changes leading to the direct benefit of its citizens. The Castro regime should publicly and morally be put on the defensive. They should have to answer why their people starve because of their insolence, not wanting to let farmers benefit from their work. Or explain why a Spaniard, Canadian, or Frenchman can eat Filet Mignon every day in the tourist hotels while Cuban citizens make do with a few ounces of black beans. Or why thousands risk death because merely asking “why” can put you in prison. The ever-stiff Castro finger pointing at the US must be broken.

This is not negotiation or discussion. This is making it crystal clear who is responsible for the continued suffering of the Cuban people.

Impressions on Shoot Down

Last weekend I watched Shoot Down, the recently released documentary about the February 24, 1996 shoot down by Cuban MiGs of two, unarmed, U.S. civilian Brothers to the Rescue airplanes with three U.S. citizens and one U.S. resident on board. The documentary was well done both with regard to its content and the quality of its presentation. Shoot Down recently received a well deserved award for best documentary at the Sonoma Film Festival and I highly recommend it to all of you.

Two things that come across in the documentary and which I continue to find striking until this day are:

(i) The level of impunity with which the Cuban government acted on that day without regard to international law or protocol for engaging civilian aircraft, particularly civilian aircraft that were operating over international airspace

While the Castro regime has seldom been shy about acting with impunity in oppressing its own people and while it also has a long record of hostile behavior funding and supporting communist and oppressive movements in Latin America and Africa, not since the Cuban Missile Crisis had Cuba carried out an act of such overt aggression directly against the U.S.

(ii) The Clinton administration's lukewarm reaction to what many considered an act of war against the U.S.

While a number of alternatives were considered, President Clinton’s ultimate reaction to the shoot down was to sign Helms Burton into law and condemn Cuba’s actions, but many thought the reaction by the Clinton administration should have been much more forceful.

Why do you think the Castro government decided to gamble by exercising an act of such open aggression against the U.S.? Do you think the Clinton administration acted appropriately in its response to the shoot down?

For those of you who have watched Shoot Down, what are your thoughts about the documentary?