This piece by Jaime Suchlicki raises interesting and frankly frightening questions about the potential for a new missile crisis scenario with Cuba again or a new actor Venezuela serving as the backdrop. I for one would hope that such gloom and doom scenarios are just that and are limited to the province of intellectual curiousity, but if history has taught us anything it has taught that this merits tracking. Comments?
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Jaime Suchlicki*
A New Missile Crisis?
In 1962, the Soviet Union introduced nuclear missiles into Cuba bringing the world to the brink of a nuclear holocaust. That crisis was resolved after the U.S. navy blockaded Cuba and Nikita Khrushchev removed the missiles from the island.
A more ominous and difficult crisis may be brewing in the Caribbean. Russia is again the principal actor, with Cuba or Venezuela the main supporting actors.
On July 21, 2008, the Russian newspaper Izvestia, reported, citing an unidentified “highly placed” Russian military source, that Russia may send its military aircraft to bases in Cuba in response to U.S. plans to deploy elements of a missile defense in Europe. Russia has two aircrafts capable of flying directly to Cuba. The Russians supersonic Tu-60 a nuclear bomber known as the “White Swan” and the strategic bomber Tu-95 known as the “Bear” could be deployed. The Izvestia report, reproduced by the Moscow correspondent for Bloomberg Sebastian Alison, claims that only discussions are taking place at the Staff of Russia’s long-distance strategic aviation command. The Russian source is quoted as saying: “I am not going to say that there is nothing behind the talks.”(1) In mid July, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that Moscow would take counter measures against U.S. plans and today former Russian top defense ministry official Leonid Ivashov said that Cuba could be best used by bombers for “brief stopovers.”(2)
It is possible that the Russians may be willing to gamble again in Cuba. Yet given the difficult economic crisis Raul faces and the succession process taking place in the island, it is not likely that Raul and his military would like to promote a new crisis with the U.S. Russian nuclear bombers in Cuba may also violate the Kennedy/Khrushchev 1962 accord.
Today, officials at the Russian Ministry of Defense denied that Russia is contemplating such a move, while the Kremlin declined to comment. The Russians denial, however, does not extend to Venezuela. Given the fact that President Hugo Chavez is visiting Moscow this week and that he has recently strengthened military ties with Russia, the timing of the Izvestia announcement raises a red flag. Chavez is shopping for Russian air defense systems, submarines and other weaponry. Since 2003, he has purchased more than $4. 4 billion of Russian military equipment. Venezuela is now Russia’s third biggest weapons customer after China and India.
Does the price of Russian friendship include the possibility of Chavez allowing nuclear bombers being deployed or visiting briefly the South American country? If that were to happen, the U.S. would face a more difficult scenario than in 1962. Blockading Venezuela, given its size and borders, would be almost impossible. The Russian planes will not be sitting targets as the Russian missiles were in 1962, especially if Russian planes “visit briefly” Venezuelan airfields. The Russian action would not necessarily be considered illegal and the widespread support the U.S. received from the world community in 1962 would be impossible to duplicate.
If the Russians decide to gamble in Cuba or Venezuela, it would represent a challenge to the current and future administration in Washington, one perhaps more complicated than the 1962 nuclear crisis.
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Notes
(1) “Russia Mulls Regular Bomber Flights to Cuba” Agence France Press, July 21, 2008. (2) “Russia May Send Military Aircraft Back to Cuba” by Sebastian Alison, Bloomberg, July 21, 2008.
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* Jaime Suchlicki is the Emilio Bacardi Moreau Distinguished Professor and Director, Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami. He is the author of Cuba: From Columbus to Castro and Beyond, now in its fifth edition.
Monday, July 21, 2008
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3 comments:
Can you not truly blame them? We (America) have a President that is out of control. Literally thousands have lost their lives on an assumption that has never been true in Iraq. So you tell me what are we there fighting for, it has change a few times. Why did we go to Iraq when it was Saudi Arabians that were in the planes at 9/11? Russia and Venezuela have oil, and they know the powers that put an unelected man named Bush into the most important position in the world President Of The United States want their oil. They will protect it. Bush and his oil grubbing elitists will sacrifice Americans to obtain the oil entrust in this world. Ooh I’m going to die and so will you. The funniest thing is that they will kill Bush too. We’ve all listened to Bushes so called speeches - it would be funny if it wasn’t for the fact he is our President. He knows nothing about government. Did he take Political Science - does he know how the checks and balances were suppose to work, and why? He is not smart enough to the things that he has done to America and the world economy. So my question is….who is behind him?
Crazy, and scary scenario indeed. Don't think we need to worry much in the short term:
- russia has more than enough missles to overwhelm the installations in eastern europe,
- chavez's military purchases are less scary when examined in context, (they're army is old, and latin american is re-arming in general)
- there are only three sources for modern arms (US, EU, and Russia), and two of those won't really sell to venuezuela.
A bigger concern for me is if Russia (in its current emboldened state) decides to annoy the US by restarting oil subsidies to Cuba. That would be a very negative influence on Cuba.
The true issue is as Axel said "Russia (in its current emboldened state" With the rise of Putin and his apparnt unwilligness to leave the scene its only a matter of time before the U.S. and Russia come to a head. Since 1980 the United States have lived in this false sense of security as the "only" world power. Russia with all its issues can still cause alot of harm, China remains a strong growing state, the E.U. has demostrated it can keep up economicly so to speak with the U.S. The "pink tide" keeps growing in south america with no sign that the tide is shifting any time soon.
Of the above 4 cases; 2 are outright socialist/communist, 1 is composed of various nations (of which some are socialist) and the other is our long time nemisis Russia. Short term I think we are ok but long term things can get pretty scary pretty fast.
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