To be clear I don’t own a crystal ball and my middle name is not Nostradamus. However, in the interest of spurring some discussion I’d like to look at some of Senator Obama’s history as well as some of the recent history of the Democratic Party and discuss how likely it would be for Obama to lift the embargo against Cuba were he to be elected President this November.
An important fact to point out is that Democrats have lost five of the last seven Presidential Elections. The American people are clearly unhappy with the current representation coming from the Republican Party, but for how long will that last once Bush 43 and his neo-cons are no longer in the White House? The country has a strong conservative base and the Republican Campaign Machine is no foe to be taken lightly. Moreover, the country has a lot of holes to dig out from under; Iraq, Islamist extremist, the economy, oil prices, health care, global warming, immigration… there are a dozen major pitfalls that could damage a neophyte administration’s credibility with the people very quickly. Not to mention the pitfalls we cannot predict.
Speaking of unforeseen pitfalls, I recall Bill Clinton’s statements in an interview where he addressed the matter. He affirmed the difficulty a U.S. President has in focusing on his agenda and platform coming into office because he’s simply too tied up by events that are out of his control. A President elect can come into office with all sorts of aspirations and issues to target but world events can easily divert his attention and strain his resources. Let’s take Al Gore for example. Mr. Gore is currently the champion of the Global Warming cause and it undoubtedly would be one of the major focuses of his administration were he to have been elected President. Now the level of threat that Global Warming poses to humanity is debatable, what is not debatable is how Gore has been instrumental in advancing the cause through his efforts. So would President Gore have been able to accomplish as much for the cause? President Gore would have had 9/11 thrust on his plate, would be dealing with Iraq and Hussein (assuming Gore would not have invaded Iraq) , Iran, North Korea, at the time a bursting dotcom bubble, a resurgent Russia, a budding Super Power in China, Katrina, etc… Where would the time and resources to champion Global Warming policy be on his priority list?
Now on to the specific subject of the Cuban Embargo; here is a video of Obama’s take on the embargo in early 2004:
Here are Obama’s statements on the embargo at CANF’s 20 de Mayo Luncheon earlier this year:
So the switch of positions begs the question. Have meetings with distinguished Cuban-Americans like Jorge Mas and Pepe Hernandez opened Obama’s eyes to the need for the Embargo? Subsequently, leading to the shift in position; or, is Obama, playing politics and simply pandering to an influential community of voters in a swing state?
If Obama’s core beliefs and principles are that the embargo should be lifted (and I’m not saying that this is a fact, but it is a possibility based on his stated position of pro-dialog with ALL nations, friend or foe) then it stands to reason that he might move quickly to lift the embargo upon being elected President. Obama would find himself in an office that’s been difficult for Democrats to capture. He would be facing a dozen existing and potentially crippling pitfalls before a country whose patience with Washington and politicians has grown thin. Not to mention the hurdles of yet to exist and unpredictable pitfalls that will arise. Furthermore, he’ll have a democratic majority in the legislative branch to assist in pushing his agenda. I believe under such circumstances Obama would push hard and fast to institute the changes outlined in his platform and ideology.
Hopefully lifting the embargo is not one of them.
I'm curious to hear other's predictions on how this plays out.
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Tony,
This post raises some interesting threshhold questions about Obama's policy positions with respect to Cuba. Of course the potential answers to those questions have recently engendered much debate and consternation within the exile community this poster included.
At the risk of sounding cynical, my view is that both direct and anecdotal evidence to date suggests that this is very far from an unsettled question -- that is, Obama will almost assuredly lift the Cuban embargo either immediately or soon after he is elected President.
And so while there are those who view Obama's recent pro-embargo statements at the CANF luncheon as a major retrenchment or bridging of the gap on this issue (which to be fair was on its face categorically different from his history of singular anti-embargo declarations), I would suggest that much more telling about his true compass on this issue is the fact that Obama has consistently and alarmingly declared that he would sit down with the leaders of rogue nations everywhere "without preconditions" the Castro regime included (a position he reiterated at the CANF luncheon).
And so, when Obama did an about face and declared at the CANF luncheon that he would now support the Cuban embargo whilst also supporting diplomatic talks at the highest levels with the Castro regime "without preconditions" but with a set agenda and at a place and time of his choosing (que que? como? suffice it to say that this is oxymoronesque to the casual observer much less with a trained eye), at best he was engaging in classic "politico double speak" or pandering, and without more to give him the benefit of the doubt and believe that he would take this discussion to the possible closest brink to removing the Cuban embargo without doing so would be foolish, risky and ultimately humiliating to those who support this policy.
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