Can you hear me now? What do recent changes mean for Cuba?

Cuba has recently received significant press regarding the “reforms” Raul Castro has been pursuing on the island, with the focus being on the newly acquired “freedoms” Cubans can now enjoy. For example, they can now purchase a wider range of consumer products, with the cell phone being the most popular, and visit tourist hotels. (For a fuller discussion of the enacted changes, see the Miami Herald article here http://www.miamiherald.com/news/americas/story/537358.html)

When I read of these reforms, my first reaction was “wow, that’s right, they have no cell phones in Cuba!?!” My second reaction was to ponder how this could be…aren’t cell phones everywhere? Indeed, while traveling, I’ve seen them everywhere from the favelas in Rio, to the villages of Thailand. There are few places on Earth where you can go without seeing locals chattering away on their cell phones. Until 2008, Cuba was one of them. Given that in 1959, Cuba was one of the wealthiest countries in the western hemisphere, one has to ask … is this is really progress? Or is it a vivid example of the economic destruction wrought by the Castro regime?

Nevertheless, these changes do improve the quality of life for Cubans at the micro-level. But why did Raul enact these changes? And more importantly, will he keep going?

The optimistic interpretation is that Raul is different from his brother, understands the plight of the Cuban people, and is willing and able to be the heroic leader that leads Cuba to liberty. I truly hope this is the case.

However, it is too easy to view this in a pessimistic light, a light much more consistent with past behavior. By enacting these changes, Castro gains plenty, while losing little. First, it will be easier for him to deflect criticisms about how impoverished Cuba is – he will point to the cell-phones and flat screen TVs on display while knowing that this is unattainable for most Cubans. Second, this will increase government revenues by sucking more money from the exile community. Cuba’s landline phone system is ancient, decrepit, and difficult to use. Many Cubans do not even have a home phone. Hence, it is highly probable that Cuban exiles will fund the purchase of phones by relatives on the island to facilitate communication. Of course, these purchases will be at official exchange rates (~20x market rate), ensuring high revenues for the government. Finally, Raul temporarily assuages the Cuban people, giving him time to solidify his power base post Fidel. As one prescient Cuban phrased it in the Miami Herald article:

''Cubans are like battered wives,'' said Eduardo, a 30-year-old Havana bachelor who spent a recent afternoon admiring the latest $5,000 flat screen TVs on sale here. ``The husband beats the wife every day. Then one day he doesn't beat her, and it's like, `He's so good to me; he didn't beat me today.'

So, no, I am not optimistic. To me, the changes thus far are not a sign of more significant changes to come.
However, I hope I am wrong. I hope rumored reforms, such as allowing all Cubans to travel freely and officially own property, materialize. If they don’t, I hope current reforms backfire on the Castro regime, as it may not anticipate the social change wide-spread use of cell phones can bring (as oppressive governments in eastern Europe and Asia have learned - to their detriment).

As Cuban Americans, we continue to hope.